The key to predicting the results of Venezuela’s gubernatorial/municipal elections on November 23rd is unquestionably an analysis of the mass abstention (on the Chavista side) in the referendum on constitutional reform one year ago.
Why did 3 million citizens fail to register a vote for these broad advances, when they had voted to reelect Chavez just one year earlier? And why did these voters refuse to cross to the opposition side and vote against the reforms?
The vast majority of individual abstentions can surely be explained by one or more of the following:
- Societal problems (mainly food supplies and crime) may have deteriorated had the reforms been passed. (The government almost immediately recognised this fact, initiating a program of “Revision, Rectification and Relaunch” to deal with these two issues)
- These problems notwithstanding, the reforms were too big a leap for the revolution at this stage. (The broad nature of the 69 reforms, and the complexity of enforcing them all, were good reasons to opt for a gradual, prioritized approach)
- Disillusionment with the slow pace of nationalizations and transfer of popular power. (Quoting Alan Woods: “…the President [had not] introduced an Enabling Act in the National Assembly to nationalize the land, the banks and the key industries under workers’ control and management. Instead of decisive action against the oligarchy, which would have enthused and mobilized the masses, the latter were presented with yet another constitutional referendum.”)
- Many did not make the effort to vote, thinking the reforms (requiring only a simple majority) would pass easily. (Just one year earlier, Chavez had been reelected with 62.84% of the vote)
- The reforms, while correct and timely, had not emerged as a result of real popular decisionmaking. (They had been formulated by President Chavez and the National Assembly, and while the campaign involved town square meetings across the country and open debate on state television, these had not altered the quantity or quality of the proposed reforms)
- Reactionary elements disguised as revolutionaries sowed fear and sabotaged parts of the campaign. (With the proposed reforms including the worst fear of the counter-revolution (the means for Chavez to seek indefinite reelection), it is clear that those in certain positions would have attempted to diminish the force of the “Si” campaign)
As one can see, none of these points apply in relation to the upcoming regional elections. If there are some I’ve missed, please add them in the comments, but it seems that there are no reasons for any significant abstention in two weeks’ time. And since the opposition only gained 200,000 votes in the year leading to 2007, we can assume that another 200,000 is the upper limit for what they can expect this time around. That means 4.7 million voters is the most we can expect to be in the opposition camp.
Reviewing the electoral map on a national scale, this means the PSUV (United Socialist Party) only has to minimise abstention to sweep the 22 contested states, the Capital District of Caracas, and some 330 municipalities.
Carlos- I have a couple of bets with escualidos each for Bs.F 100 that the opposition will NOT win more governorships than the PSUV.
I’m sure I’m going to win and get horribly drunk on November 23rd.
If, however, the opposition does win more states and gain say 100 mayoralties then we’d better start cleaning up our AK 47’s!!
BTW – good analysis. The other point you could mention is that the opposition, being the egomaniacs that they are, have not managed to postulate many unitary candidates and the vote could split letting in the PSUV.
My guess is that the opposition could win a total of 6 governorships at the most. (Miranda, Merida, Tachira, Nueva Esparta, Yaracuy and Bolivar) I might be being too optimistic for the opposition after reading your analysis.
You should try and make some more of those “who’ll win more” bets!! Looks like they are still drunk from last December!
At this point I can’t see them getting more than 3 states. But as long as we get Zulia, I’d be happy even if they win 5 of the rest.
Seriously, there is no reason for anybody to be abstaining! Feck it, I’ll predict they get a measly two.
ps. very quickly, why those 6 states? (Miranda, Merida, Tachira, Nueva Esparta, Yaracuy and Bolivar) of course the oppos have a strong showing in each, but any reasons beyond that?
Not really. There’s also a doubt about Guárico. But maybe I read too much oppo crap and listen to them too much as well.
Trujillo could be another and someone even mentioned Apure.
All we need is for abstention to drop and bingo, we could take them all..and then they’d cry fraud.