*Chavez yesterday floated the idea of calling Latin America "Indian America".
From a piece by Andres Oppenheimer (LatAm correspondent for the Miami Herald) that’s been syndicated to all four corners of the globe in the past week:
In Chile, right-of-center candidate Sebastian Pinera is leading in the polls for the next election. Colombia’s right-of-center President Alvaro Uribe or one of his ministers is likely to win that country’s next election.
Meanwhile, and perhaps most importantly, Brazil, Mexico and Peru are becoming increasingly pragmatic and globalized, and might move closer to the United States once highly unpopular President Bush disappears from the political scene.
In sheer numbers, Latin America’s pragmatic-democratic bloc — led by Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Chile — already accounts for more than 80 percent of the region’s economy, and more than 90 percent of its foreign investments. I would not be surprised if after a decade of authoritarian populist trends, the pendulum begins to shift back to the center.
Pragmatic, democratic, globalized, and economically successful as a result. That’s the message on the table for the ‘regimes’ which our good friend Andres would love, just love to see the back of; Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Ecuador and Argentina being his principal targets.
Above all Venezuela, of course. But one of his preferred countries, Brazil, sees sufficient geopolitical importance in Venezuela that their leaders have committed to meet in person every 3 months. Chile’s president also senses the political direction of the region and maintains cordial relations accordingly. Peru’s president, who apparently merits no rebuke from Oppenheimer, enjoys a miserable 20% domestic approval rating. Peruvians have probably had their fill with globalized pragmatism.
Oppenheimer again:
Judging from the latest headlines, you might think that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s radical-leftist populism is gaining ground in Latin America, and that it will expand its influence in the region over the next few years.
We might well think so. The most striking “authoritarian populist trends” were supported in Venezuela in 2006 with 63% of the vote, and last Sunday in Bolivia with 65%. Paraguay was the latest domino to fall, and the new president will assume power on the 15th of this month with only the leaders of Colombia and Peru absent. El Salvador lies in the wings of revolutionary change, and Peru looks set to be the next biggie.
Within South America, the only two countries actively resisting continental integration are Colombia and Peru, with the latter looking extremely shaky. Mexico, unfortunately, won’t be permitted to break away from neoliberalism and growing ties to the U.S. and Canada, regardless of the views of its population, whose majority feel more connected in every sense to their Latino compatriots to the South, and arguably to the humanist and progressive policies of the revolutionary movements.
Ecuador’s Correa will next year expel the U.S. military from the Manta airbase in a striking demonstration of Latin American resurgence, leaving Washington with few relocation options other than Colombia, which already plays host to more gringo soldiers than are necessary to fulfil imperial objectives in the primary narcozone on the continent.
Venezuela’s revolution is incredibly secure. Chavez has over 4 years remaining of his second and provisionally final term, which represents more than enough time to ensure the absolute irreversibility of the process even if he is not to be elected to a third. That said, the odds are stacked in favour of the constitution being reformed next year to allow this third term. We’ll be certain to see Oppenheimer opposing such a move vigorously, even as his buddy Uribe in Colombia does precisely the same thing.