Sitting here with a cold beer from the store down at the bottom of my apartment block (the “Dry Law” obviously being flouted just as subtly as the state ignores certain campaign laws), the ambience around is pretty normal. Thursday’s gran finale for the Chavistas almost certainly wasn’t as big as 2006, but a handful of testimonies suggested that barely anybody knew another revolutionary planning to vote “No”.
I’m expecting between 6.5m and 7m votes for the affirmative, and between 4.5m and 5m for the negative. It would have been idiotic for the government to manufacture signatures, and so it is believable that over 6.5m people signed the symbolic and otherwise meaningless petition.
So although the atmosphere isn’t anything to write home about, that is a logical consequence of holding a second nationwide vote within a matter of months. The good news is that weather will be clear and dry across the country tomorrow, and Venezuelans have a general expectancy that every subsequent electoral event will feature more efficient procedures. In addition, nothing gets Chavistas in the voting lines like a referendum on Chavez. As such, analysing results for 2007 and 2008 is a bit of a waste of time, unless you are an opposition blogger looking to perform some highly optimistic gymnastics. The real parallel is 2006, the general election in which Chavez destroyed his opponent with a majority of 63%.
Though the voter roll is marginally bigger now, it would be a miracle to improve on that result. But all the indicators (including a large amount of the polls) suggest tomorrow will bring an easy victory for the “Si”.
Regardless of the margin of victory, Chavez will have lots of breathing space to make a serious dent in crime statistics and bolster national production of basic foods before the next general election in 2012. The revolution is reaching a stage of early maturity where progress in such areas must surely start to become noticeable. As with any deep-rooted problem, the foundations of the solutions will themselves solve nothing. But measures are indeed being implemented across the board to combat crime and infrequent scarcity of certain food products.
With all this in mind, Chavez must believe that 8m votes are possible in 2012. Before then, one expects the working day will have been reduced to a maximum of 6 hours. Venezuelans will appreciate their luck as they watch industrialised economies flounder amidst global depression and the onset of increasing oil scarcity. The productive development of allied countries in the region (aided in small part by Venezuela’s wealth) will show growing returns.
In short, we shouldn’t be disappointed if the “Si” should win with only 55%. Any apparent dip in Chavez’s popularity at this stage is easily recoverable. But if the “Si” wins with 60% or more, we can celebrate the fact that Venezuelan revolutionaries are practically immune to private media distortions, and so the immediate path ahead will be even easier. We’ll be assured that our increased efforts, whether practical or theoretical, will reap commensurately greater rewards.
